1, 3, 10, and 30 Years

by Dorian S. Abbot

1, 3, 10, and 30 Years

By Dorian S. Abbot

Here I will give some brief predictions for the state of science with regard to merit-based evaluations and freedom of expression at logarithmically spaced intervals in the future. My most distant prediction is 30 years from now, which corresponds roughly to when I expect to retire.

1 year: There is a lot of inertia in the scientific system and potentially some hysteresis. I don’t see any reason for optimism on a 1 year time scale. The Woke activists are in power and they are going to exploit this opportunity to get as much of their agenda done as possible.

3 years: I expect there to be a variety of legal developments against identity politics on this timescale. Many programs being pushed by diversicrats are inconsistent with established employment law and will not stand up to challenges when they are brought. Moreover, lawsuits over outrageous treatment of dissenters, such as those of Gordon Klein, Timothy Jackson, and Charles Negy, will win, which will start to impact how administrators behave. Additionally, the Supreme Court is likely to rule soon that meritocratic values must be followed in admissions. 

More generally, the counter-Woke movement is growing in strength, and on a three-year timescale this will start to pay off. Intellectual responses are being formulated and politicians are noticing that Wokeness is unpopular. I think there’s a good chance that the next president will not be as enamored with identity politics as the current one. This will influence who gets appointed, from the Cabinet to judges to lower positions. It will then start to influence how universities operate through judicial rulings, “Dear Colleague” letters, the functioning of government departments, and the enforcement of the law. 

10 years: I am most uncertain on this timescale. I am hopeful that once we get through the current crisis we’ll have monotonic progress toward a scientific system based on the principles of Merit, Fairness, and Equality. But I think there’s a real possibility that there will be reversals along the way. 

30 years: Identity politics and DEI only exist because we’ve forgotten the importance of competence. I think this is primarily because we’re so rich and we have had no serious foreign competitors for so long that we have convinced ourselves that competence is not that important. But internal problems and external pressure will force us to acknowledge that this is a mistake on a multi-decadal timescale. You can only appoint so many judges, professors, engineers, lawyers, and doctors who do not have the intelligence and skills to do their jobs well before you start to have serious problems. The American people are, by and large, practical and reasonable. They will notice this and change course. Externally, when you have a foreign competitor/enemy who is a serious threat to you militarily, politically, economically, technologically, and scientifically, it forces you to focus on competence and skill. China has its own problems, but I think that within 30 years they will be seriously challenging us. This will refocus America on merit. Finally, I see all universities adopting Woke/DEI anti-meritocratic policies as an unstable equilibrium in the long term. As soon as one major university goes back to hiring the best scholars and admitting the best students, it will surge ahead of the others on all measures of academic success and productivity. This will put strong pressure on the others to do the same or get left behind. Overall, I’m reasonably confident that by the time I retire we won’t be talking about DEI and identity politics.