The Long Shadow of Nakba

Israel’s triumph in the Arab-initiated war of 1948 resulted in the displacement of 750,000 Palestinian Arabs. It is known by them as the Nakba, or catastrophe, and deserves our regret and empathy. However, by historical standards the displacement itself was not particularly severe. History is replete with migrations under much more duress. The core tragedy was neighboring Arab states’ refusal to absorb Palestinian refugees as full citizens, compounded by global powers refusing to insist.

This core truth is much denied, on the grounds that the displacement was so unjustified, so barbaric, so burdensome, so white supremacist, so anti-Muslim, and so evilly designed that few other sins compare. However, the historical evidence strongly suggests otherwise. Two other mass displacements started shortly before Nakba, involved far more people, were far more barbaric and burdensome, and hurt whites and non-Muslims more than others. Yet they cast much shorter shadows thanks to conscientious efforts to resettle refugees in kindred-majority states. Another major displacement came after Nakba, more protracted but of similar magnitude, and it too was resolved with a shorter shadow through reabsorption and assimilation. What makes Nakba exceptionally tragic is not how it started or proceeded, but rather the rejections by kindred hosts that followed.

Records of violent displacements are often poor, reflecting a mix of disorder and denial. Later reconstructions are subject to some bias and often accused of more. I have done my best to give the numbers generally deemed as most credible. While I invite correction from knowledgeable readers, the main features are so striking that even doubling or halving various estimates would not change the core conclusions.

The single most vindictive displacement after World War II, with least justification in any terms other than raw power, was the Soviet Union’s complete ethnic cleansing of predominantly German Koenigsberg and surrounding areas, which had roughly 900,000 inhabitants pre-war. The region was renamed Kaliningrad, annexed into the Russian Federal Republic despite no prior Russian presence there, resettled primarily with Russians, and used mainly as a forward military base that provided the Soviets’ their only ice-free Baltic port. 12-14 million ethnic Germans—16%-20% of all ethnic Germans in Europe—were expelled from lands they had inhabited well before Nazis came to power. This was done at Soviet behest, most notably by grabbing a Syria-sized chunk of eastern Poland (nearly half of its pre-war area), transferring a smaller Jordan+Israel-sized chunk of Germany to Poland, and encouraging displaced Poles to displace Germans.

Around half a million displaced Germans are estimated to have died from violence, starvation, disease or exposure. Half a million to a million were deported to Soviet labor camps, many of whom perished or remained captive for years. Hundreds of thousands of women-possibly up to 2 million-were raped. The culprits were usually Soviet troops, with Stalin reportedly shrugging this off as letting “liberating” soldiers have some fun. An estimated 8 to 10 million displaced Germans spent weeks, months, or years in official resettlement camps.

In comparison, the estimated 700-750 thousand Palestinians displaced in 1948 from Israel constituted 1.2%-1.5% of the estimated 50-60 million ethnic Arabs in 1945. Displacement is estimated to have directly or indirectly caused 10-15 thousand Palestinian civilian deaths over the next few years but possibly several times more. There are no reports of widespread systematic rape. While this does not soften any individual’s suffering, and while atrocities definitely occurred, the scale and intensity of German displacement were clearly far worse.

Why then does the German displacement cast so much less of a shadow today? The main reason was the willingness of the remaining German states, particularly West Germany, to quickly absorb displaced Germans with full citizenship rights. West Germany further stood out for doing this despite tremendous wartime destruction and influx from East Germany. By 1953 it had welcomed 9-11 million Germans from outside, roughly a quarter of its 1945 population.

In contrast, Jordan is the only Arab state that has granted large numbers of Palestinians full citizenship rights; even there citizenship has been denied since 1988 for Palestinians who arrived after 1967. Most other Arab states forbid citizenship to Palestinians no matter how long their families have lived there. Lebanon, Egypt, and the Gulf states rarely allow Palestinians to attend public schools, while several others require them to pay extra fees. Lebanon and Egypt forbid ownership of real estate by Palestinians while Syria, Iraq and the Gulf states severely limit their ownership rights. Lebanon bars Palestinians from more than 70 professions including law, medicine, engineering, and public-sector employment

Note that German displacement had nothing to do with avenging East European Jews (most of them had been killed and the rest gained nothing), promoting capitalism (the displacements were directed by Communists), extending Western imperialist control (Soviet imperialism was the big winner), or oppressing non-whites or Muslims (none were involved). While the Western Allies signed off on this at Potsdam in 1945 and turned a blind eye to abuses, core responsibility for the displacement lies with the Soviets.

The German “Federation of the Expelled” tried to secure compensation and rights to return but were consistently rebuffed. Some revanchist groups pressed for reversal of the border changes. Agitation eventually diminished on a combination of successful integration into Germany, German leaders’ acceptance of the territorial losses, and EU-wide focus on improving interstate relations.

Let us turn now to India, where Britain’s parting shot as overlord aimed to reduce strife between Hindus and Muslims. The Partition of 1947 carved out a Muslim-run Pakistan at the west and east ends of India (the east end is now Bangladesh). Famed anti-colonialist Gandhi leader ardently opposed this, as did the Indian National Congress, with overwhelming support from the Hindu majority and Sikh minority. However, the Muslim League insisted on separation, won the support of most of India’s Muslims, and threatened extended unrest if denied. Pressed to leave India quickly, the last Viceroy Mountbatten hastily approved a Partition plan with little thought to implementation.

Note the inversion from what happened the next year in Palestine. There too Britain was faced with two peoples pressing for independence in two different ways. Jews were the minority side pressing for a partition that the Muslim majority resented. In India, Muslims were the minority side pressing for a partition that the Hindu majority resented. Britain’s last hurrah there created a Muslim-dominated state of 75 million people, larger than all Arab states combined.

Widespread panic and violence ensued. In West Pakistan, nearly all Sikhs and over half of Hindus fled or were expelled. Some 20% of Hindus fled or were expelled from East Pakistan, while a similar share of Muslims fled or were expelled from India. Overall, 6 to 7 million Muslims, 2.5 to 4.5 million Hindus and 0.5 million Sikhs were displaced for a total of 10-12 million people, roughly matching German totals though on a much larger population base and reflecting transfers in both directions.

Estimates of people killed during the Partition vary widely, with most in the range of 200,000 to 2 million. Most killings occurred in the Punjab region and Bengal, where many Muslims, Hindus and Sikhs had previously lived as neighbors. Passions for vengeance amid widespread disorder sparked “ethnic cleansing” attacks on both sides. Caravans of refugees were preyed on. An estimated 75-100 thousand women were raped.

Compared to German displacement in Europe, the Partition has left more bitterness in the Indian subcontinent, largely because it is less complete. Relations between Bangladesh and India are generally good as India helped Bangladesh gain independence and both are democratic, nominally secular states with strong trading ties. However, Pakistan has warred three times with India for more control over mostly Muslim Kashmir. India also accuses Pakistan of supporting Muslim terrorist attacks in India, a claim that Pakistan persistently denies but seems to be at least partially true. On the bright side, neither country seeks to undo the core Partition. Neither has there been any international outcry to eliminate or ostracize Pakistan, despite Pakistan’s semi-theocratic governance and blatant discrimination against non-Muslims.

The last post-War displacement I will discuss had a magnitude similar to Palestinians’ but was far less concentrated in space and time. It concerns the flight and expulsion of Jews from Arab-dominated countries. In all, about 850 thousand Jews were displaced: 600 to 650 thousand moved to Israel and most of the rest moved to France.

Most of the displacements were triggered by Arab reactions to wars, most of which Arabs lost but one in Algeria that Arabs won. In each case, local Jews were treated as collaborators with foreign enemies or proxies for them. In Yemen, over 50,000 Jews were evacuated to Israel in 1949-1950. In Iraq, nearly the entire Jewish population of Iraq, about 120 thousand, fled or were airlifted to Israel in 1950-51. In Egypt, 20 thousand Jews fled after the 1948 war and 25 thousand more fled after the Suez Crisis. After France withdrew from Algeria in 1962, nearly all the 140 thousand Algerian Jews fled to France or Israel. About 250 thousand Jews emigrated from Morocco and 100 thousand emigrated from Tunisia. Displacement from Libya, Syria and Lebanon added another 75 thousand.

From this perspective, the post-1947 displacement from and to Israel resemble the population swap between India and Pakistan, albeit smaller in scale and more drawn-out. However, the reception was strikingly asymmetric. While Israel gladly absorbed displaced Jews and indeed sought them out, Arab states mostly rejected displaced Palestinians. While the displaced Jews assimilated, the displaced Palestinians weren’t allowed to. While the progeny of displaced Jews became native-born citizens, the progeny of displaced Palestinians did not.

To be clear, nothing I have written here proves that Israel’s formation was wise or just. However, it does demonstrate that demands for Israel’s dismantlement are grossly unfair and unjust unless they are coupled with demands of equal urgency and vitriol for

• Russia’s withdrawal from former Koenigsberg and handover to Germany

• the dismantlement of Pakistan and handover to India

• full citizenship for every Palestinian living in other Arab countries

Furthermore, demands for extensive reparations from Israel to displaced Arabs should rightly be coupled with extensive reparation from Arab countries to displaced Jews. This would net out to transfers from Arab states to Palestinians, which already happen, although much is siphoned off by corrupt intermediaries.